Kharg Has Sat Empty Since August And Tehran Is Watching The Calendar

At 0350 GMT on Wednesday, Brent traded at $110.38 a barrel, up $1.59, and WTI at $99.18, Reuters reported — and Kharg Island, which handles almost all of Iran’s crude exports, has not had a tanker dock at its crude terminals since late August, Bloomberg reported Monday, on ship-tracking data and images from the European Union’s Sentinel satellites.

The satellites pass every few days, and the longest gap between images was three days, while loading a very large crude carrier takes 24 to 48 hours, so a berthed supertanker would have shown. One small ship did: on 10 October the products tanker Clavel, which shuttles between Iranian ports. Jask, the smaller outlet at the eastern end of Hormuz, showed nothing at all.

Bloomberg, drawing on Kpler and Vortexa figures, put Iran’s crude exports at almost 1 million barrels a day in July and at nothing since late August. Reuters, citing Vortexa, put seaborne crude exports at zero from the second week of September, after a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels a day at the start of that month, and still zero on 5 October. The two accounts differ by a few weeks on when the line went flat, and this letter cannot reconcile them.

The cause, on Reuters’ account, is the US naval blockade, reapplied in July. On Tuesday, three senior Iranian officials and an insider told Reuters that Iran is dragging out talks to weaken President Trump before the 3 November midterm elections, and is preparing for renewed strikes rather than a deal. Iran’s Foreign Ministry and the White House did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaee, wrote on X that “not a single gram of enriched uranium will be removed from Iran,” Benzinga reported, and Reuters reported that Trump has said the US will not bomb Iran again before 3 November. Both sides are counting to the same date.

SPONSORED

Elon Musk's Insane Projection: 7,692,207%

Where should you invest $100 right now?

Elon Musk just invented and patented this new AI technology…

And he's predicting it will launch a NEW industry that will grow more than 7 million percent in the coming years.

Even if he's only 10% right, that would still be enough to grow $100 into more than $700,000.

Click here to see the details on what Elon Musk called "an infinite money glitch."

Trace the barrels that are missing. Iran exported nearly 650 million barrels of crude in the year through April, mostly to China, Bloomberg reported, and Chinese refiners are now seeking other crude, competing for barrels and for ships — a competition Bloomberg said has pushed oil prices higher and fueled a historic freight rally.

Then the water the barrels cross. UK Maritime Trade Operations alerts counted 25 ships targeted in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the first two weeks of October, against 18 incidents in all of September and 15 in August, Bloomberg reported. Separately, Kpler data showed at least 18 vessels attacked over two weeks, Reuters reported. The counts use different windows and different sources, and this letter does not add them together.

This letter attributes no attack to any party beyond what that party itself claims. On Monday the Houthis claimed attacks on a Saudi Aramco site at Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield; Saudi authorities had not confirmed them, and Reuters could not verify the claims.

Back home, two Energy Department officials said they are working with refiners worldwide to raise fuel output because of a diesel shortage, Reuters reported.

Inside Iran the blockade shows up as a price list. Annual inflation reached 73.6 percent in September, the Statistical Centre of Iran said, and the rial has lost nearly 35 percent against the dollar since July, Reuters reported.

On one side, a government waiting for a vote. On the other, a vote waiting for a pump price.

AAA put regular gasoline at $4.2644 on 21 October, against $4.2786 yesterday, $4.3333 a week ago, $4.4786 a month ago and $3.0478 a year ago. Diesel stood at $6.3174, against the AAA record of $6.5276 set on 22 September.

A note on yesterday’s letter, which printed Brent at a high of $111.75 and at $111.20 at 1120 GMT and called it a futures price that would change. The December contract settled Tuesday at $109.11, down 0.4 percent, and WTI at $98.21, down 0.3 percent, Investing.com reported. Its session high was $111.46 against the $111.75 Reuters gave, and this letter cannot reconcile the two highs.

On Tuesday the Dow closed at 52,495.88, up 1.02 percent, the S&P 500 at 7,712.57, up 0.28 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,424.82, down 0.02 percent, Benzinga and Sunday Guardian reported. At 7:34 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.27 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.67 percent, Reuters reported, and Netflix was down more than 6 percent premarket. Futures do not say how the session will close.

The ten-year Treasury yield in the Federal Reserve’s H.15 series stood at 5.15 percent on Monday 19 October, up from 5.09 on Friday, in the release dated 20 October. Tuesday’s reading is not yet posted, and live quotes this morning run from 5.09 to 5.13 percent depending on the page and the hour, so this letter cannot reconcile them.

This dossier wasn’t meant for everyone.