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Intercepted

Dossiers

The decision didn’t happen. The countdown did.

The statement didn’t come from Trump’s own mouth. It came from his press secretary, reading a single paragraph to reporters on a holiday afternoon — the president would decide within two weeks whether to join Israel’s war on Iran’s nuclear program, leaving room, he said, “for potential negotiations.

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The rate stood still. The forecast moved without it.

The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark rate at 4.25 to 4.50 percent on Wednesday for the fourth straight meeting, and the vote itself carried no dissents — but the projections released alongside it showed a committee that no longer agrees on where it’s headed.

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Both governments called it a deal. Neither would call it finished.

Two days of talks at Lancaster House ended late Tuesday with American and Chinese negotiators agreeing “in principle” to a framework meant to get the Geneva trade truce back on schedule — and the mechanism at the center of the deal was the one both sides had been quietly weaponizing since April: rar

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The rating agency wrote a letter. The bond market wrote a bill.

The Treasury tried to sell $16 billion of twenty-year bonds on Wednesday afternoon, and the buyers who showed up wanted more yield than the market had priced them for — the auction cleared at a high yield of 5.047 percent, the highest since the bond’s reintroduction.

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Friday was the filing. Monday was the invoice.

Moody’s waited until after the closing bell on Friday, May 16, to drop the notice — the United States no longer holds a perfect credit rating from any of the three major agencies, the downgrade to Aa1 from Aaa ending a run that had lasted since 1917.

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The first ally through the door got a smaller cage, not an open one.

One day after the words “historic trade deal” left the Oval Office, the fine print for imported cars was still being written — on May 8, President Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the general terms of a US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal, and it moved not a single ship, only a quota.

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The rate stayed put. The alibi moved first.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted twelve to zero to hold the benchmark rate at 4.25 to 4.50 percent, the fourth straight meeting without a move since the cut in December — and buried inside the same two-page statement was a word the Fed had avoided since the Volcker era.

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The Bank Read The Tariff File

HSBC reported the kind of quarter that looks solid until the warning line starts working on the balance sheet.

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