The Treasury’s Wednesday buyback pulled the 30-year yield down about 10 basis points. By Thursday it was back near 5.25%, giving back roughly half that relief, while Walmart shares fell 9% on slowing U.S. sales.
The Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks Wednesday, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, and the 30-year yield fell 7.8 basis points within hours. Gold is already up more than 10% in three weeks on falling rate-hike odds.
Semiconductor stocks fell 5% Tuesday and Oracle’s credit rating has already been cut to one notch above junk. The trigger wasn’t tariffs. It was $1.65 trillion in hyperscaler debt the balance sheets don’t fully show.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 298.7 million barrels last week, the lowest since 1983, while the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, its highest since 2007. The two numbers share one cause.
July retail sales fell 0.6% to $763.6 billion, ending five straight monthly gains, while August sentiment printed 51.0. New York factories reported input prices at 58.6 against selling prices of 22.7.
July producer prices were unchanged, yet the narrowest core measure rose 0.4% and the twelve-month rate held at 4.7% against a 3.4% CPI. Hours later the 30-year bond sold at 5.216%.
Hours after July CPI slowed to 3.4%, the government sold $42 billion of ten-year notes at the highest auction yield since 2007, then reported a record $432 billion July deficit.
July CPI rose 0.1% and the annual rate slowed to 3.4%. Real average hourly earnings still fell 0.1% for the month and 0.2% over the year.
Intel expanded a $15 billion stock sale to $20 billion, pricing 210.5 million new shares at $95. The AI buildout now has a dilution ledger.
The United States lost 23,000 payroll jobs in July while the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high. Two ledgers delivered opposite orders.
Brent crude climbed to $82.49 while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.67%. One supply shock is now moving both operating costs and the price of capital.
SpaceX produced $2.561 billion of AI revenue in the second quarter, then spent $15.828 billion building the machinery behind it. Nasdaq-100 investors now carry the gap.
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