Canada's counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of American goods take effect at 12:01 tomorrow morning, matching the US measure dollar for dollar. The Federal Reserve decides eight days later.
August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a consensus near 56,000, and July’s reported 23,000 loss was revised to a 21,000 gain. The revisions went the other way this time.
August private payrolls rose 38,000, but education and health alone added 45,000. Strip that one sector out and private employment fell. May and June were revised down by 103,000 between them.
Anthropic committed $35 billion to Nvidia-backed Lambda for computing capacity, with Nvidia supplying the chips and reportedly holding the lease. The financing structure is the story.
The Japanese 10-year reached 3% for the first time since 1996, gilts hit 2008 highs and bunds 2011 highs. The US 30-year is now 6 basis points from where it sat before the Treasury intervened.
Warsh put the six-month annualised PCE rate at 4.1% against 3.7% over twelve months, and said 54% of components are rising above 3%. September hike odds jumped from 35% to 57%.
Japan holds $1.203 trillion of U.S. Treasuries and has just stopped needing them. Its own 10-year now pays 2.90%, more than a hedged American one, and mortgages price off the curve it walks away from.
July PCE came in at 3.7% against a 3.6% forecast, December rate-hike odds now run above 70%, and the Treasury is doubling bond buybacks anyway. Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole at 8:00 Friday morning.
The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February and $86.3 billion in refunds is already cleared for payment. On Saturday a 1930 statute nobody had used in seventy years put 50% duties on $20 billion of Canadian goods.
Bessent promised an economic D-Day, then declined to touch Chinese banks: “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?” Brent fell 1.9%. Gold is up 36% in a year.
Federal debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time last week. The Treasury had to bid for its own bonds, yields rose anyway, and bitcoin jumped more than 23% while gold closed at $4,590.
The Treasury’s Wednesday buyback pulled the 30-year yield down about 10 basis points. By Thursday it was back near 5.25%, giving back roughly half that relief, while Walmart shares fell 9% on slowing U.S. sales.
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