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Intercepted

Dossiers

The case that started with a wine importer’s lawsuit a year earlier was still, this month, the single largest unresolved variable in American trade policy.

By mid-January, the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs — argued back in early November, covering both the Federal Circuit’s narrower finding and the D.C. District Court’s broader one — still hadn’t arrived, leaving every business that had spent a full year building supply ch

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The government’s own data had holes in it.

Wednesday, the country’s largest banks kicked off fourth-quarter earnings season — traditionally the first genuine, ground-level read on how the broader economy actually performed, arriving weeks before most other companies report and carrying outsized weight for exactly that reason.

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The report card came back passing.

Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released December’s Consumer Price Index — the first inflation reading of the new year, and the first one in months not directly distorted by the shutdown’s data collection gap, landing at 2.7 percent annual headline inflation.

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2025 didn’t end on a strong note.

Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics closed the book on 2025’s labor market: just 50,000 jobs added in December, capping a year that produced only 584,000 total, the weakest annual hiring pace since the pandemic year of 2020 and the second-weakest since the 2009 financial crisis.

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The market moved.

By Thursday, five trading days into the new year, institutional desks were still visibly split on how to position around the Venezuela developments — some treating the regime change as a durable geopolitical risk reduction worth pricing into energy portfolios for months, others treating it as a shor

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The dictator was gone.

Wednesday, US forces boarded and seized two more vessels tied to Venezuela’s sanctioned oil trade — the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera in the Atlantic near Iceland, and the Panama-flagged M Sophia in the Caribbean — expanding an interdiction campaign that had already claimed the tanker Skipper week

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The regime fell over a weekend.

Monday, oil markets opened absorbing a weekend most traders hadn’t fully priced: US special forces had captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas early Saturday, following airstrikes around the capital, ending a Venezuelan blockade that had spent three months building toward exactly this kind of outcome.

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The calendar changed.

Friday, the first trading session of 2026, opened with every major uncertainty from the prior year still fully intact — a tariff case pending before the Supreme Court, a Fed chair search underway, a currency that had just posted its worst year in decades, and a government funded only through the end

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The ball dropped in Times Square.

New Year’s Day arrived with markets closed and the country’s fiscal ledger exactly where 2025 left it — a national debt north of $38 trillion, a fourth quarter distorted by a 43-day shutdown, and a Federal Reserve heading into 2026 without a permanent chair for the second half of the year.

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The blockade didn’t need to sink a ship this week.

Sunday, with three days left in the year, PDVSA began shutting down producing wells across the Orinoco Belt — the last resort for a state oil company that had run out of places to put crude it could no longer reliably export past a US naval blockade.

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The ships stayed in port.

Christmas morning brought no ceasefire to the slow-motion blockade sitting off Venezuela’s coast — by December 24, only two tankers carrying PDVSA crude had even attempted to reach international waters, and one of those two had already been intercepted.

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The half-day of holiday trading was quiet. The full year behind it was not.

Christmas Eve brought the customary half-day of thin, holiday-shortened trading — but the number that mattered for the year had already been set well before Wall Street’s early close: the dollar index was on pace to finish 2025 down roughly 10 percent, one of its worst annual performances in decades

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