Twenty-five states challenged a 10% to 12.5% tariff network covering 60 economies, while fresh federal data showed $309.0 billion of goods entering the United States in June.
WTI dropped to $80.79 after planned U.S. strikes were halted, while Iran limited talks to a temporary Hormuz passage and U.S. oil buffers lost nearly 11 million barrels in one week.
AWS grew 37% to $42.2 billion while Amazon’s trailing free cash flow swung to negative $7.6 billion. The stock surged anyway, exposing how retirement portfolios now depend on the AI spending machine.
The Fed stood still, but the 30-year Treasury hit a 19-year high and mortgage rates climbed toward 6.8%. The real tightening is happening outside Washington.
Oil is feeding inflation again just as mortgage rates return to a one-year high. The Fed can fight one side of the squeeze - but not without making the other worse.
The yen fell to 163.83 after Tokyo spent ¥11.7 trillion defending it. Now Japan is pushing pension capital home, and the pressure could reach U.S. Treasuries, mortgage rates, and retirement accounts.
Washington paused after advisers warned that targets and munitions were running thin. Iran matched the pause conditionally. Markets bought relief before the terms around Hormuz were settled.
Oil touched $102, new tariffs hit 60 trading partners, and the odds of a Fed hike next week jumped to 38%. The cost of money is moving before most portfolios do.
Hormuz was already choking Gulf exports. Now Houthi strikes are threatening the Red Sea route built to bypass it—while Brent breaks $100 and September hike odds climb to 80%.
Five hyperscalers are set to add $1.57 of capital spending for every $1 of new operating cash flow. Alphabet reports tonight. The real question is who finances the machine.
Cushing is hovering near tank-bottom territory, the SPR is down to 316.5 million barrels, and gasoline is back above $4 as the Hormuz and Red Sea routes come under pressure again.
The paper market is selling. The physical market is being taken.
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