American employers added 29,000 jobs in September, against forecasts near 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent. It is the last employment report the Federal Reserve sees before it meets on 27 October, and it lands inside a hiking cycle.
Chinese refiners have suspended October fuel exports to anywhere beyond Hong Kong and Macau. Crude through the Strait of Hormuz is back at its prewar 13.5 million barrels a day. Refined products through the same water are at 677,000.
The August core rate printed at 3.0 per cent against a July figure published at 3.3, but the release carried a retroactive methodology change. Crude exports are back to 98 per cent of pre-war volumes while refined products sit at 58, and diesel is still 70 per cent dearer than a year ago.
The Saudi East-West pipeline is exporting again at about half capacity and crude gave back the Monday spike. But shipping now accounts for roughly a quarter of what an Asian refiner pays for a delivered barrel, against five to six per cent last year, and the ten-year moved two basis points.
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade. Trump said no on Saturday. Brent rose 4% to $108.48, the ten-year sits at its highest since July 2007, and the PCE index due Wednesday measures August.
Durable goods orders were flat in August, but the line that tracks business investment jumped 1.6% against a 0.5% forecast. New home sales hit an eight-month high and the Kansas City Fed factory gauge rose to 14. Nothing here gives the committee a reason to stop.
Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at 5.033%, up from 4.393% in August. The auction tailed 3.1 basis points, bid-to-cover fell to 2.21 and indirect bidders took 54.31%. Dealers absorbed what was left.
Richmond's manufacturing index dropped to minus 2 from 4, new orders to minus 6 and shipments to minus 5, while prices paid accelerated and employment climbed to 7. The Fed moved six days earlier.
M2 stood at a record $23.218 trillion in July, up 5.4% over the year against a 2% inflation target. The August reading publishes this afternoon, and three Fed officials speak before it.
Xi arrives in Washington this week. The Busan tariff truce runs out on 30 October and China's rare-earth suspension on 10 November. Nothing else is scheduled in between.
The Bank of Japan went to 1.25% this morning, 7-2. The yen weakened to 157 and ten-year JGB yields fell. A hike delivered with that much hesitation reads as the end of a cycle, not the middle.
Brent fell, yields fell and stocks rallied on an unattributed report that Aramco is targeting half the East-West pipeline within days. Aramco has confirmed nothing. The Bank of England, holding rates the same morning, said energy prices are still pushing inflation up.
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