Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export terminal is running on stored crude, the pipeline that refills it is still shut, and the kingdom is now routing barrels back through the strait it built the pipeline to avoid. Brent fell 1.5% anyway.
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% for the first time since 2023 and the 30-year touched 5.38%, all of it before Wednesday's decision. The long end repriced without waiting for permission.
Drone strikes closed the line carrying four to five million barrels a day, Brent hit a four-month high, and gold dropped below $4,300. The market has decided Wednesday's Fed decision outranks the Gulf.
August consumer prices held at 3.4% while core cooled to 2.4%, a third straight monthly easing. Energy did all the work in the headline. The committee can argue either case from the same release.
Headline producer prices accelerated seven tenths to 5.4% on energy. Core producer prices came in at 4.7%, exactly where they were in July. Consumer prices land tomorrow, six days before the Fed votes.
At 1pm Eastern the Treasury auctions ten-year notes into the highest yields since October 2023. The same day, its doubled long-end buyback programme takes effect. Both settle the morning the Fed convenes.
Core CPI says 2.5 percent. Core PCE, the index the Fed's 2 percent target is written on, says 3.3 percent. The committee votes on September 16 without an update to the second one.
Canada's counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of American goods take effect at 12:01 tomorrow morning, matching the US measure dollar for dollar. The Federal Reserve decides eight days later.
August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a consensus near 56,000, and July’s reported 23,000 loss was revised to a 21,000 gain. The revisions went the other way this time.
August private payrolls rose 38,000, but education and health alone added 45,000. Strip that one sector out and private employment fell. May and June were revised down by 103,000 between them.
Anthropic committed $35 billion to Nvidia-backed Lambda for computing capacity, with Nvidia supplying the chips and reportedly holding the lease. The financing structure is the story.
The Japanese 10-year reached 3% for the first time since 1996, gilts hit 2008 highs and bunds 2011 highs. The US 30-year is now 6 basis points from where it sat before the Treasury intervened.
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